Beginning on February 28, the conflict between the USA and Iran has continued for almost 39 days, with serious repercussions on global trade and peace in the region. The crisis is unlikely to subside in near time, revealing the vulnerabilities of states in an event when the maritime chokepoints, such as Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are used as strategic weapons. Both the straits are narrow passages- Strait of Hormuz is 54 km wide while Bab el-Mandeb is about 32 km wide – at their narrowest points. Regardless of their narrow width, these waterways are crucial for global trade, especially in regard to energy supplies. Even minor risks to shipping routes in this region have serious ramifications for global trade and security, as evident with the closing of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

India understands the need to view these developments in the region with caution. After all, these developments are not far-off occurrences and have serious strategic and economic consequences. For a country that imports 60% of its LPG consumption, 90% of these pass through the Strait of Hormuz alone whereas Bab El-Mandeb is crucial for providing India the maritime gateway to the European and Mediterranean region via the Suez Canal. Additionally, the disruptions in maritime connectivity leads to a steep rise in shipping costs, creating delay in transportation of cargos and altering the supply chains, all of which is crucial for India’s economic growth.

Therefore, it is important to view the USA-Iran War and the consequent closing of the Strait of Hormuz in the context of Maritime Security. Modern wars are not fought on the land territories alone, utilising unconventional ways of warfare such as taking advantage of geographical positioning and disrupting supply chains. Hence, maritime confrontations require the ability to detect, anticipate and respond to potential hazards in a contested space. Maritime Domain Awareness constitutes an indispensable capability without which modern maritime warfare cannot be effectively undertaken. In this context, India needs to strengthen its Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) architecture to safeguard its strategic and economic interests.

Strategic Significance of Maritime Chokepoints: The Cases of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb

For the purpose of global trade and security, Maritime chokepoints have always been crucial. A large volume of trade passes through these narrow conduits, making them strategically important and economically vulnerable. Located between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, Strait of Hormuz alone provides passage to 20% of the world’s oil and liquified natural gas (LNG). Notably, this strait is also the only sea passage for the Persian Gulf to the ocean. Along with the energy supplies, the strait is also crucial for the export of fertilisers such as urea and ammonia.

Similarly, the Bab El-Mandeb strait, located between Arabian Peninsula (Yemen) and Horn of Africa (Djibouti and Eritrea),  is crucial for connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. By extension, it also provides connectivity from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean region via the Suez Canal. While Bab El-Mandeb is not closed officially, any attack by Houthis (a group of Yemen militias identified as a key ally of the “Axis of Resistance” and backed by Iran) can further create tensions for global trade.

The strategic significance of these waterways can be understood by the fact that past disruptions in these areas have severely affected the shipping routes for global trade. As witnessed in the 1980s during the Tanker War between Iran-Iraq, a 25% drop in commercial shipping was reported and as a consequence, a sharp rise in the price of crude oil. Non-traditional security such as piracy has also prompted the shipping companies to change their shipping course, as witnessed in the 2000s when Somali attacks emerged as a threat in the Gulf of Aden. Therefore, threats of any nature – traditional or non-traditional – in these strategic chokepoints contain a massive potential to trigger vulnerabilities, impacting economic and strategic national interests.

India’s Energy and Trade Vulnerabilities Amidst the Crisis

India’s energy security and economic growth is impacted by the tensions revolving around the Strait of Hormuz. India’s energy security depends on its imports from various countries, and West Asia contributes a majority of it. Any disruption in chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz directly impacts energy security and has economic implications, raising the cost of transportation (in case of alternative routes undertaken), possible inflation and most importantly, availability of fuel. India has begun to diversify its imports, as in the case of crude oil where 70% of crude imports are from routes outside the Strait of Hormuz. However, in the case of LPG, the impact on the energy sector becomes evident. Out of 60% of imported LPG consumption, 90% came from the Strait of Hormuz alone. To counter this, India has begun to maximise its domestic LPG production. Regardless, it cannot be denied that the current disruption has impacted the energy sector.

Tensions revolving around Bab el Mandeb only worsens the situation. As signalled by the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran, it is possible that Iran utilises the Bab el Mandeb in order to disrupt global supply chains, creating indirect pressure on the USA and Israel. This route is particularly significant for India as it carries India’s exports to Europe via the Suez Canal-Red Sea. Rerouting the exports via the Cape of Good Hope affects the travel time of cargos and ships, adding almost 10-15 days to the journey, which in turn, impacts the freight costs. India’s fertiliser industry too might face strain amidst the current disruptions. Much of India’s fertiliser imports take place through West Asian states through the Strait of Hormuz. After China, India is the second largest fertiliser user.

Lessons for India’s Maritime Domain Awareness from Iran Crisis

One important takeaway is to acknowledge that Maritime Domain Awareness involving threat assessment and monitoring should be a continuous process rather than an activity undertaken only in the case of an immediate threat, such as, the recent crisis on the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, any Maritime security strategy should be based on continuity, not on a principle of reaction. This allows the maritime authorities to take timely action and manage threats before they emerge as risks, requiring immediate response.

Secondly, beyond the coastline of the Indian subcontinent, situational awareness should be extended to cover larger geographical regions, including distant chokepoints that have the ability to affect India’s national security and economic trade. Through regional partners, efforts to enhance coordination should be made in areas such as information sharing and capacity building. Initiatives such as Information Fusion Center-Indian Ocean Region (IOR) are useful measures to this end.

Thirdly, cooperation between civilian and military authorities should be emphasised. The security architecture has become increasingly complex and thus, cannot solely be the responsibility of the navies and coast guard. It also demands cooperation between shipping companies, insurance providers, port authorities as well as other stakeholders involved. Lastly, innovative technology is required to maintain the present state of maritime awareness as well as improve in case of future threats. Automated tracking systems, use of Artificial Intelligence, satellite imageries and other such technologies can help the Navy in real-time updates and foresee future threats.

Conclusion

The recent crisis of the USA and Iran involving the Strait of Hormuz can be useful to reflect on India’s maritime strategy and further strengthen its MDA architecture. Following the recent 14-day ceasefire, there is a cautious optimism that the situation would ease in the West Asian region and global supply chains will stabilise. However, India must continue to strengthen its efforts towards maritime situational awareness. As a net importer of energy supplies, it is imperative for India to safeguard its interests in the seas. It is also important for India’s growth story to secure its trade routes for exports via maritime routes. To achieve this, India must continue to focus on building resilience through regional partnerships, investing in surveillance capabilities and modern technologies, and institutionalise proactive monitoring.